"I agree that at first glance this seems less amazing; however the negative predictive value is very high. In other words if you don't have EBV you are virtually protected from getting MS; your risk is close to zero! This is one of the strongest arguments that I keep putting forward when making the claim that EBV is the cause of MS."
"Regarding Bradford-Hill criteria. I recently gave a talk at the MS Frontiers meeting at Heathrow Airport and concluded my talk with the following slide."
"EBV ticks between 2 and 6 of Bradford-Hill criteria; it depends on how strong the evidence is and if you are willing to accept the evidence."
"There is debate on the strength of the EBV-MS association; with a relative risk of between 2 and 3. A low relative risk of developing MS due to EBV is to be expected as it would be a rare manifestation of a common exposure. High relative risks are only found with common manifestations of uncommon or rare exposures."
"What is essential for causation is experimental evidence. If we prevent (vaccination) or suppress EBV (anti-viral drugs) to we prevent or cure people of MS? These are strategies high-up on our research agenda."
"In isolation the conclusion slide is difficult to understand. I will therefore make a video and post it on YouTube to explain it in more detail."
Other posts of interest
01 Jun 2011
I am giving a debate at the MS Frontiers meeting taking place 23-24 June 2011 at Sofitel , Heathrow. The following is my abstract. "Multiple Sclerosis is caused by Epstein Barr virus" ...