Monday, 18 June 2012

Research: Corpus callsoum shrinkage predicts progresssion

 
Aim: To determine whether corpus callosum atrophy predicts future clinical deterioration in multiple sclerosis
Methods: In 39 multiple sclerosis patients the area of corpus callosum in the sagittal plane, T(2) and T(1) lesion volumes, brain parenchymal fraction and brain atrophy were determined at baseline and 1 year after treatment initiation. Non-parametric and multiple regression models were built to identify the most reliable predictors of disability and of its changes over 9 years. 
Results: Corpus callosum atrophy during the first year of assessement was the best predictor of disability (r = -0.56) and of its increase at 9 years (r = 0.65). Corpus callosum atrophy of at least 2% predicted increase in disability with 93% sensitivity and 73% specificity (odds ratio = 35).  
Conclusion: Corpus callosum atrophy is a simple and accurate predictor of future disability accumulation and is feasible for routine clinical practice.
The corpus callosum is the nerve highway between the left and the right sides of the brain. This study looks as shrinkage of this region and uses it to predict the course of disease and the level of disability years later. If the corpus calllsoum shrinks it is associated with more disability and the increase in disability years later. As we have said before a correlation coefficient of r =-1 or r=1 are negative or postivie correlations and r=0 is no correlation but r=0.5 or -0.5 is not much of a corrleation. Therefore there is a massive margin of error, where you can get a wrong prediction as easy as you get a right prediction.



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